Better thought: Overcoming confirmation bias
A framework for adapting opinions to include alternative views
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Confirmation bias is a human tendency to prefer information in a way which preserves our existing beliefs. We naturally want their beliefs to be true. As a result, we actively seek out information which confirms our views, assign more weight to supporting opinions, dismiss challenging ones, or interpret data in the way we want it.
As a strange example, a relic of having worked at Lazada is that I find it extremely hard to believe whenever someone tells me that they prefer Shopee to Lazada.
Whenever people are hanging on to what appears to be unreasonable beliefs, having divided opinions, or blind spots in their thought, confirmation bias is likely at play.
I wanted to reflect on how confirmation bias affects me due to several circumstances:
As I work on developing my thoughts in writing more, either in this newsletter or elsewhere, I find myself forming stronger opinions about the world around me.
The universe of content is growing, and my own time to consume it is reducing. I try to keep as few content sources as possible, and thus worry my viewpoints are too limited.
I want to learn how to better navigate a society which is increasingly divided due to conflicting beliefs. Whether it was the pandemic, politics, race, or criminal justice, different groups tend to be digging in and entrenching their views.
To ensure the clarity of my own thought, I plan to internalise actionable practices both in my own ideas and in dealing with others.
I summarise these in the next section.
A framework for avoiding confirmation bias
Seek out disconfirming evidence
The common solution to confirmation bias is to seek out disconfirming evidence. I should be doing more to challenge my thoughts by:
In my work, stress testing my opinions and documents by thinking how I would take them apart from the other side. I often check my work by reading to see if it is correct, but a better approach would be to put myself in the shoes of those who might be reading and trying to challenge it to see where it is wrong.
Research by finding alternative views rather than proof. It can be tempting to reach a firm conclusion using the first google entry which seems support the initial hypothesis.
Curating my content sources to give myself alternative viewpoints. Every publication has an angle. I realise that topics discussed and links shared tend to repeat, suggesting that most of the writers or publications I follow tend to have similar angles. I need to spread out and follow thought leaders on the opposing camp.
To put this in practice, I sought out views that confirmation bias might not be as prevalent as I believed. In one of the rare instances of a challenge to confirmation bias, it is noted how the research on confirmation bias is not as firm as it would seem. It also criticises the “disconfirming evidence”. Following our our pre-conceived beliefs - our gut-instincts - is crucial for discovery and developing hypotheses. We need a starting point for our ideas. Otherwise, we would not be able to form any thoughts when data is limited.
Strong opinions, weakly held
I now have two opposing viewpoints, but how do I navigate their competing pulls? It would be equally foolish to immediately flip my views upside down and now say confirmation bias is false.
“Strong Opinions, Weakly Held” is a potential framework to reconcile the views.
Allow your intuition to guide you to a conclusion, no matter how imperfect — this is the “strong opinion” part. Then –and this is the “weakly held” part– prove yourself wrong. Engage in creative doubt. Look for information that doesn’t fit, or indicators that pointing in an entirely different direction. Eventually your intuition will kick in and a new hypothesis will emerge out of the rubble, ready to be ruthlessly torn apart once again. You will be surprised by how quickly the sequence of faulty forecasts will deliver you to a useful result.
The key is in adaptation rather than complete overhaul. Likely, my original thought is neither fully true or false, but somewhere in between. As new information arises I make minor corrections until I reach a better conclusion.
Expressing positions with a confidence interval
However, the “Strong Opinions, Weakly Held” framework is also criticised as giving little guidance on how to shift one’s opinion. It often ends up being used to justify being overly forceful with a position, without actually being willing to shift. Once positions are framed in a black or white manner, only the most clear headed thinkers can properly adapt.
An improvement I’ve found is to express thoughts with confidence levels. Rather than saying: “The stock market will go up”, say: “I am 70% confident the STI will rise within this week”. Another way is to think in terms of bets - how much would I stake on this view being right.
This keeps me aware that there is both truth to my view, and a chance it can be wrong. It makes me think about how I can be wrong, and what information I am lacking. When new information arises, I can easily adjust the confidence levels to reflect this.
The difficulty is that this goes against how the world normally behaves. I would not be a very fun conversationalist if I add numbers and qualifications to every thought. I probably would keep these to myself. As a lawyer, opinions are a part of my work. Unfortunately, those who seek my opinions want them in crystal clarity. Us in the business of giving opinions want them as vague as possible. We are not allowed to communicate the true shades of grey. The consequence is miscommunication, inaccuracy, and having to defend poor thoughts.
Be willing to be wrong
Knowing these methods are not enough to apply them. To hold opinions weakly and to adapt, is to be willing to admit being wrong. I cannot internalise this framework without first learning to let go of the need to feel knowledgeable.
I find this hard. There is a pressure to be seen as being right, to always know everything. People expect others to have certainty and strong opinions. Our confirmation bias exists to help us defend ourselves better in the face of being challenged.
Letting go of the need to be seen as knowledgeable is something I need to work on. I struggle most with this in professional settings. I get defensive if I feel I am being underestimated or thought to be stupid. Such as if someone tried to explain something to me which I already understand. I worry that it would affect how my work performance is perceived. However, it would be better personal growth to worry less about work performance, which is out of my control to an extent, and to focus on improving the quality of my thoughts. When the right time approaches, the growth will show for itself.
There is a Japanese term - “Shoshin”, which refers to a beginner mindset. The more one knows, the more their mind is closed to new things. Intellectual humility is thus important for growth. I should constantly remind myself to place myself in this state of mind.
Summing Up
Putting it into practice is what really matters. I hope to try and apply these in my daily life until it becomes second nature. For those who interact with me, please feel free to hold me accountable to these and point out if I fail to do so.
To sum up the strategy for challenging confirmation bias:
Seek out disconfirming evidence.
Hold opinions weakly, adapt them to new information.
Add confidence levels to my views.
Let go of pride and maintain a beginner’s mind.
Unfortunately, overcoming confirmation bias comes with a paradox. Any attempt to overcome it is tainted as my confirmation bias would prefer evidence that I have overcome it.
Have a good week!
James
Thanks for reading! I would love to hear any thoughts you had about this post and to discuss it further. Do you think confirmation bias affects you? What do you do about it? How have you seen it manifest in others?
You can email me at jameschanwz@hey.com, leave a comment, or starting a conversation on whatsapp.